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Larp Capital_LLC
BlikelyThis vault advertised a rate and no longer does
It quoted 11.27% at its highest and was still quoting on 2026-10-09. It quotes nothing now. A vault that has never paid and a vault that has stopped paying both read as nothing on the tiles below, and they are not the same proposition.
From 21 daily readings of the venue’s own advertised rate, which we began taking on 2026-09-19. It says the rate moved, not why.
Taking money
—
TVL
$14.9k
Return
—
over its watched history, read on 155 of 653 days, thin enough that the figure is an estimate between readings
The venue advertises
-0.2%
the share price implies -77.9% over 27 days, from 468 readings
Recent
Value and drawdown
This chart shows the last 30 days of a 654 day record; the whole-record figures on this page are measured over all of it, and the 30, 90 and 365-day figures over their own windows, dated below. The rest is the Analyst tierRange
Hover for values. Upper: vault value, with BTC indexed to the same starting capital. Lower: how far below its own peak it was.
The rate, and the seven things that qualify it
A quoted rate is one input, not a verdict. These are the same seven fields in the same order for every vault, so a high rate and a high rate nobody can withdraw from do not look alike.
- Current quoted rate
- -0.2%As the venue states it, from Hyperliquid. Passed on rather than adopted, and whether rewards are inside it is the next row.
- Rewards inside that rate
- No reward rate is published, so we cannot say whether the quote includes one.A published rate, not a verified payment. Promotional projections and amounts actually accrued are different things and this is the first.
- Realised return
- -77.9%over 27 daysDerived from the share price we read, over the window stated. Annualisation is secondary: the window is the measurement.
- Fee basis
- Inside the share priceA return derived from the share price is net of whatever the venue already deducted. Fees charged outside it are not in either number.
- Withdrawable now
- The venue publishes no withdrawable figure, so no amount is claimed either way.A reading of now, not a promise about the day somebody tries. An accruing rate with nothing withdrawable is the case this section exists for.
Profit, and what the value is made of
Value held less cumulative profit is the money people put in. The venue draws the two apart; the gap is the point.Range
Profit and loss since the vault opened, as the venue reports it. It ignores deposits and withdrawals: only trading moves this line.
Value heldNet money put in
Range
Solid: what the vault holds. Dashed: what depositors put in, net of withdrawals. Where the two rise together the growth was deposits, not performance.
Nobody has put money in or taken it out across this window, so the money put in is a flat line and the two charts above are the same curve at two heights. That is a fact about this vault rather than a repeated chart: everything its value did, it did by trading.
No strategy has been declared for this vault
Everything above is reconstructed from public data. A declaration is free, signed from this vault’s own key, and cannot be edited afterwards.Note 28
Evidence
What a risk decision about this vault can rest on
Six questions, and what we hold for each. This is not a score and there is no letter at the end of it: the answers are different kinds of thing and compressing them into one number would hide exactly the part a reader needs. Where we have nothing, the row says so. 2 of 6 are not measured for this vault.
- What does it hold or lend into?DeclaredUSDCThe venue names a deposit asset. What the vault actually holds behind it has not been read.
- How much could leave now?Not measured—No exit reading. This is the figure that decides whether a position can be left, and we do not have it.
- Who runs it, and what else have they run?MeasuredLarp Capital_LLCA named operator with a record across every vault they run, including the ones that closed.
- What does it depend on?Declared
Passport
Identity
Analyst tier
Detail is hidden, not absentHow well it executes
Built from 2,000 individual fills. Two strategies with identical signals can differ by hundreds of basis points purely in how they get filled, taker share, fee rate, slippage. This is the part of a result that is operational competence rather than market view, and it is what tells you whether a good year was skill or a good venue.
See what unlocksAlready a customer? Sign inHow this vault behaves
from 2,000 fills over 175.7 daysTiming indicates rules automated management, confidence 100%.
- · Trades continuously through every 6-hour window, including overnight.
- · Activity spread evenly across all 24 hours (evenness 0.954).
- · 28 instruments traded concurrently.
Overnight activity 52%
Hour-of-day evenness 95%
Cadence regularity 0%
Clock alignment 21%
Fills per day 11.4
Instruments 28
Timing only. This says nothing about whether the strategy is any good, a losing bot is still a bot.
Nearest liquidation, as the venue reports it
ETH rises 109.7% to 5,233.94, from 2,496.1 now.
Leverage 5.0× weighted by size, a liquidation starts at the second number, not the first.
The closest liquidation is 110% away at the venue's own reported price. Weighted leverage is 5.0×.
Current exposure
1 positions · $13.3k gross · 0.9x the vault's capital| Instrument | Side | Notional | Share | Entry | Unrealised | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | short | $13.3k | 100% | 2998.76 | $2.7k |
How the capacity estimate was reached
- 9 of 15 instruments showed no positive edge.
- Impact is inferred from this strategy’s own realised cost, not measured against a book.
- A 10% participation ceiling is applied where venue volume is known.
- Trade size is converted to capital using the strategy’s own capital-to-trade-size ratio.
- Capacity is capped at 50× the largest trade actually observed, beyond that we are extrapolating.
- Measured edge exceeded 100bps per trade and was clipped, above that it is directional luck, not repeatable alpha.
- Capped at 50x current capital; beyond that the estimate is unfalsifiable.
- At least one instrument hit the observed-size cap, so the total is a floor rather than an estimate.
| Instrument | Edge | Taker | Median trade | Limit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL | 89.8bps | 100% | $2.4k | Edge 89.8bps against 8.0bps of realised cost. |
| GRASS | 151.2bps | 100% | $992.00 | Edge 151.2bps against 8.4bps of realised cost. |
| HYPE | 82.1bps | 98% | $500.00 | Edge 82.1bps against 8.2bps of realised cost. |
| ETH | 27.3bps | 60% | $1.0k | Edge 27.3bps against 5.9bps of realised cost. |
| TRUMP |
Who is in it
Money in and out
Ledger read 34 minutes agoAnalyst tier
Detail is hidden, not absentWho is in this vault, and how much of it is one wallet
A vault that is eighty per cent one depositor is a vault whose price can be reset by a single withdrawal, and whose headline TVL says almost nothing about whether anyone else believes in it. Concentration is the risk a return figure never shows, and it moves before the return line does.
See what unlocksAlready a customer? Sign inWhat changed the value
nothing decomposed yetThe section above says money moved. This says what the movement WAS. A vault grows because deposits arrived, or because the trading worked, or because it was paid to hold a position, and a size figure renders all three identically.
Nothing can be decomposed for this vault yet: 71 days are held back because a reader has not covered them.
- 25 days: the funding ledger has been walked, but not over these days
- 1 day: fills have been walked, but not over these days
- 1 day: this vault’s fills have never been walked
Funding, summed forward
Range
What the vault was paid to hold its positions, less what it paid, a day at a time. A line that falls is a book that pays to stay where it is.
The shape of the record
135 completed round tripsRebuilt from the venue’s own open and close labels on every fill. A return figure cannot say whether it came from being right often and small or rarely and large, and those are opposite businesses.
Win rate
32%
Payoff
1.80
Profit factor
0.84
Median hold
4.8h
135 round trips, 32% of them profitable, holding a median 4.8 hours. The average win is $703 against an average loss of $392. Most trades lose a little and a few pay for all of them, which reads badly on a hit rate and is the more durable shape.
What is still missing
- Operator cohort. We show what the venue still exposes; strategies deleted before we began observing are invisible, and only pre-registration can make a cohort provably complete.
- Gross-to-net waterfall. Returns are venue-reported and not yet decomposed into fees, funding and slippage.
- Off-chain exposure. Anything held on a centralised exchange is invisible to us, so the risk shown is a floor.