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Hindenburg Short Alpha
B#39 of 77Shorting overvalued shitcoins for days
One thing worth a look
Patterns in this vault’s record that have more than one explanation. None of them lowers its grade and none of them is a finding of wrongdoing — a ledger cannot separate the readings below, and neither can we.
- The operator holds 93% of this vault themselves.
- Equally consistent with: A manager with their own money at risk, which is usually a good sign. It does mean the return is a personal account’s, not a record of managing anyone else’s.
Measured over the last 30 days, as of 2026-08-24 17:53Z. A pattern that stops is cleared rather than left standing.
Taking money
Open
TVL
$11.6k
Return
73.7%
over observed history
Recent
30.9% · 17.4%
30d · 90d · 38.5% over a year
Max drawdown
32.0%
peak to trough
Sortino
1.07
return per unit of downside risk
History
1.6y
278 observations
Confidence
43%
in these metrics
Value and drawdown
Range
Hover for values. Upper: vault value, with BTC indexed to the same starting capital. Lower: how far below its own peak it was.
No strategy has been declared for this vault
Everything above is reconstructed from public data. A declaration is free, signed from this vault’s own key, and cannot be edited afterwards.Note 28
Passport
Identity
Vault contract0x161acffc…89f2
Network
Hyperliquid
PlatformHyperliquid
OperatorHindenburg Short0x4f15882f…7c72
Deposit assetUSDC
Created on-chain2025-01-20
First observed by us2026-08-13
Statuslive
What is deciding
unregisteredStrategy versionNot attested — the operator has not bound this record to a specific version
Model providerNot attested — no model declared
ModelNot attested — no model declared
System prompt hashNot attested — no prompt commitment
Policy hashNot attested — no policy commitment
Inferred modemodel assisted (61% confidence)
These fields are empty because nobody has attested them, not because we failed to find them. An operator who registers gets a record that provably cannot be edited after the fact — and a grade no unregistered strategy can reach.
How much to trust this
Provenance gradeBReal capital, readable at the venue — but the operator’s full cohort is unproven.
Machine-managedNot established
Metric confidence43%85 observations over 579 days
Ranking#39 of 77 perp vault
Alignment and capacity
Operator’s own share92.1%
Commission10%
Depositor wallets15
Concentration0.85 · largest holder 92%
Estimated capacity$558.1k ($279.0k–$1.12M) · floor
Net flow 30d$636.15
How this vault behaves
from 178 fills over 389.18 daysTiming indicates model assisted management, confidence 61%.
- · 36 instruments traded concurrently.
Overnight activity 38%
Hour-of-day evenness 84%
Cadence regularity 0%
Clock alignment 34%
Fills per day 0.5
Instruments 36
Timing only. This says nothing about whether the strategy is any good — a losing bot is still a bot.
The venue overrode this book
The venue overrode this book: auto-deleveraged 3 times. Most recently 2025-10-10, in ASTER, ONDO, SUI.
Observed, not modelled — the venue labelled these itself. A liquidation is a margin failure; an auto-deleverage is the venue closing part of a solvent book because the other side failed; a settlement is the market itself ending.
Nearest liquidation
Get told when this changesXMR falls 83.9% to 68.2504 — from 422.97 now.
That is the nearest single instrument breaching this account’s maintenance requirement, so it is a ceiling on safety: a market-wide move hits every leg at once and arrives sooner. Computed from the venue’s own margin state at 2026-08-24 15:49Z.
Current exposure
12 positions · $14.8k gross · 1.3x the vault's capital| Instrument | Side | Notional | Share | Entry | Unrealised | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XMR | long | $12.7k | 85% | 384.442 | $1.2k | 5x |
| BTC | long | $358.66 | 2% | 110385 | -$140.28 | 20x |
| INJ | long | $338.99 | 2% | 8.32918 | -$159.93 | 5x |
| VIRTUAL | long | $319.87 | 2% | 1.22599 | -$156.80 | 5x |
| DOGE | long | $223.52 | 2% | 0.20449 | -$276.05 | 10x |
| AVAX | long | $196.50 | 1% | 19.25 | -$303.23 | 10x |
| AAVE | long | $148.21 | 1% | 226.74 | -$101.20 | 10x |
| SOL | long | $130.54 | 1% | 185.12 | -$119.38 | 20x |
| ZK | long | $118.81 | 1% | 0.038149 | -$381.17 | 5x |
| HBAR | long | $118.56 | 1% | 0.16819 | -$131.37 | 5x |
| TRUMP | long | $103.45 | 1% | 6.0383 | -$146.54 | 10x |
| STBL | long | $100.19 | 1% | 0.190468 | -$649.50 | 3x |
Snapshot taken 2026-08-24 15:49 UTC. A strategy that flips intraday can look flat at every snapshot and still carry risk in between. Click an instrument to see every other vault holding it.
How the capacity estimate was reached
- Impact is inferred from this strategy’s own realised cost, not measured against a book.
- A 10% participation ceiling is applied where venue volume is known.
- Trade size is converted to capital using the strategy’s own capital-to-trade-size ratio.
- Capacity is capped at 50× the largest trade actually observed — beyond that we are extrapolating.
- Measured edge exceeded 100bps per trade and was clipped — above that it is directional luck, not repeatable alpha.
- Capped at 50x current capital; beyond that the estimate is unfalsifiable.
- At least one instrument hit the observed-size cap, so the total is a floor rather than an estimate.
| Instrument | Edge | Taker | Median trade | Limit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNX | 751bps | 3% | $21.00 | Limited by market share: 10% of 0M daily volume across 0 trades a day. |
Who is in it
as at 2026-08-24 19:46Largest wallet
92.1%
Top five
99.9%
Concentration
0.851
Wallets seen
15
| # | Wallet | Deposited | Share | All-time P&L | In for |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leader | $10.6k | 92.1% | $5.4k | 581d |
| 2 | 0xc2533ef4…bcac | $581.30 | 5.1% | $181.30 | 567d |
| 3 | 0xba5e00b0…08c1 | $214.41 | 1.9% | $14.41 | 278d |
| 4 | 0x18ac2eba…1cea | $60.68 | 0.5% | $0.68 | 1d |
| 5 | 0xeea578c8…4836 | $43.20 | 0.4% | $4.20 | 5d |
| 6 | 0x83b7c899…c63b | $5.92 | 0.1% | $0.52 | 5d |
| 7 | 0x8ec2d3b7…b209 | $0.01 | 0.0% | -$0.69 | 11d |
| 8 | 0x7958bdc2…41d4 | $0.01 | 0.0% | $0.18 | 343d |
| 9 | 0xa63bca4a…5c7e | $0.00 | 0.0% | -$0.11 | 30d |
| 10 | 0xe4d81d4f…cb45 | $0.00 | 0.0% | -$5.37 | 241d |
| 11 | 0x32cef956…6610 | $0.00 | 0.0% | -$0.02 | 8d |
| 12 | 0xec54f073…a441 | $0.00 | 0.0% | -$0.35 | 312d |
| 13 | 0x57e0e80f…e0b4 | $0.00 | 0.0% | -$3.47 | 286d |
| 14 | 0x13f45c8d…5804 | $0.00 | 0.0% | -$0.12 | 284d |
| 15 | 0xac4b1369…003f | $0.00 | 0.0% | $1.21 | 364d |
Shares are of the capital we can observe, not of reported TVL ($11.6k) — dividing by a total that includes wallets outside our sample would understate every share and make concentration look better than it is.
Money in and out
Ledger read 3 hours agoIn
$9.2k
23 deposits
Out
$0.00
0 withdrawals
Net
$9.2k
79.2% of TVL
Window
580d
last 23 movements
| When | Type | Amount | Of vault | Transaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 09:42 | deposit | $60.00 | 0.52% | 0x7719b28a…7561 |
| 2026-08-19 23:26 | deposit | $150.36 | 1.30% | 0x0de0944f…c310 |
| 2026-08-19 19:24 | deposit | $6.00 | 0.05% | 0xbea14533…9965 |
| 2026-08-19 01:36 | deposit | $39.00 | 0.34% | 0x98b909d4…b73e |
| 2026-08-18 05:56 | deposit | $134.65 | 1.16% | 0x367a8f7d…405e |
| 2026-08-17 03:03 | deposit | $94.07 | 0.81% | 0x1163449d…da99 |
| 2026-08-16 00:18 | deposit | $5.00 | 0.04% | 0x2e1ba2fa…dbd8 |
| 2026-08-13 11:44 | deposit | $147.06 | 1.27% | 0x8473c053…8c4a |
| 2026-07-25 04:13 | deposit | $7.20 | 0.06% | 0xba810fbb…89f2 |
| 2025-12-25 22:33 | deposit | $300.00 | 2.59% | 0x89a60d33…05aa |
| 2025-11-20 23:31 | deposit | $80.00 | 0.69% | 0x25230aa1…76ad |
| 2025-11-20 00:04 | deposit | $8.00 | 0.07% | 0x98643b6b…f85a |
| 2025-11-19 01:39 | deposit | $88.00 | 0.76% | 0x6e555033…1466 |
| 2025-11-19 00:42 | deposit | $24.00 | 0.21% | 0x000d1925…74a1 |
| 2025-11-13 18:16 | deposit | $2.0k | 17.24% | 0xb5d037b1…6c73 |
| 2025-11-11 07:32 | deposit | $90.29 | 0.78% | 0xa3c6f4cc…c534 |
| 2025-10-16 15:49 | deposit | $20.00 | 0.17% | 0x9abebc39…9a34 |
| 2025-09-28 17:07 | deposit | $3.0k | 25.86% | 0xe53bd6fb…b034 |
| 2025-09-16 11:52 | deposit | $20.00 | 0.17% | 0xebff4521…c5e0 |
| 2025-09-15 16:57 | deposit | $10.00 | 0.09% | 0xc39f449f…8f72 |
| 2025-08-25 17:41 | deposit | $5.00 | 0.04% | 0x10fd3cba…6f43 |
| 2025-02-03 08:42 | deposit | $400.00 | 3.45% | 0x50670ee2…1e19 |
| 2025-01-20 12:05 | deposit | $2.5k | 21.59% | 0x8464012a…f6d6 |
Shares are against the vault’s current size, so an old movement is measured against today rather than against what the vault was then. It is the comparison a reader wants — how much of this vault that was — and it is not the same as the share it represented at the time.
The shape of the record
24 completed round tripsRebuilt from the venue’s own open and close labels on every fill. A return figure cannot say whether it came from being right often and small or rarely and large, and those are opposite businesses.
Win rate
88%
Payoff
0.51
Profit factor
3.55
Median hold
93.8d
24 round trips, 88% of them profitable, holding a median 93.8 days. The average win is $217 and the average loss $428 — it wins far more often than it loses and loses more when it does. That is the signature of selling optionality, and it produces a clean equity curve until the day it does not.
What is still missing
- Operator cohort. We show what the venue still exposes; strategies deleted before we began observing are invisible, and only pre-registration can make a cohort provably complete.
- Gross-to-net waterfall. Returns are venue-reported and not yet decomposed into fees, funding and slippage.
- Off-chain exposure. Anything held on a centralised exchange is invisible to us, so the risk shown is a floor.