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Depositors
Every return figure elsewhere on this site belongs to a vault. These belong to the people in it, and they are different numbers whenever people arrived at different times, which is always.
Depositor books are read for 679 of 2,595 open vaults we can size, holding $7.76B of $11.34B (68% of the capital). A venue that does not publish who is inside its vaults is absent from everything below, which is an absence rather than a finding about its depositors.
What they did when it went against them
behaviour over 59 days · duration from the venue93
Anchors
held 180+ days, added while under water, never cut while under water
331
Steady
held 60+ days and never cut while under water
107
Tourists
cut while under water, or held under 30 days
4,469
Cannot say
no venue-reported duration, so the question cannot be answered
The largest band is the one we cannot answer. 531 of 5,000 allocators carry a duration the venue reports; for the rest there is no holding period to read, and none is invented. Where it exists the median is 185 days.
The two halves of this metric do not share a window. Behaviour under water can only be seen inside this window. Holding duration comes from the venue and reaches back further. Adding while under water is the rarer signal and the more informative one: 264 allocators did it, 46 cut instead.
Conviction
How allocators behaved when it went against them
- Cannot say
- 4,46989%
- Steady
- 3316.6%
- Tourists
- 1072.1%
- Anchors
- 931.9%
531 of 5,000 allocators carry a holding duration the venue reports. For the rest there is none to read, and none is invented.
How this figure was arrived at
- Metric
- allocator-conviction
- Population
- allocators_observed
- Denominator
- 5,000 ratio · 100.0% of it
- Source
- The venue’s own figure, fetched from its own endpoint.
- Grade
- B
- Read at
- 2026-10-11 00:41 UTC
- Methodology
- aspern-0.3
- Snapshot
- cmv33krp50xwfleofcs3jtzui
| Allocator | Equity | Vaults | Held | Added down | Cut down | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x2bf5d9a2…f67c | $489.16M | 7 | — | — | — | unknown |
| 0x2917956e…09ca | $382.37M | 1 | — | — | — | unknown |
| 0x1601843c…347e | $345.09M | 3 | — | — | — | unknown |
| 0x9b746dbc…ecee | $325.35M | 3 | — | — | — | unknown |
Addresses seen
36,860
- In one vault only
- 30,971
In two or more vaults
5,889
- Timing measurable
- 605
- Not yet measurable
- 5,284
With measurable timing
605
Behind holding from the start
72
of 605 measured
Beat holding from the start
Read this before using the ranking. The venue lists only current depositors, so anyone who entered, lost money and left is invisible, every address below survived, which flatters all of them. Only the largest 100 holders per vault are published, so smaller and earlier positions are missing. And our value history begins when we started observing, not when the vault did. This is a lead worth investigating, not a verdict.
Chance alone would put the “beat holding” figure near 50%. It currently sits far below that, which at this stage says more about the shortness of our history than about anyone’s judgement: most entries we can measure landed after a vault’s early growth was already in its average. Treat the ranking as usable only once that figure approaches half.
Chance alone would put the “beat holding” figure near 50%. It currently sits far below that, which at this stage says more about the shortness of our history than about anyone’s judgement: most entries we can measure landed after a vault’s early growth was already in its average. Treat the ranking as usable only once that figure approaches half.
Best timing
Ranked by timing rather than by return, because picking a vault that was rising anyway is not skill. 356 addresses are held out for size , because their whole stake is under $1,000. A return on a leftover balance is arithmetic rather than a decision, and ranking it alongside a stake somebody chose would sell you the wrong list. They are counted here rather than dropped, because a shorter list that looks like the whole one is the thing this page exists not to publish. 4,894 addresses are not ranked here: a vault they hold annualises past the 1000% ceiling, and an edge measured from a ceiling is the ceiling minus the vault’s own history, which would rank the worst vaults highest.
| # | Address | Vaults | Equity | Return since entry | Timing edge | Hit rate | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | $1.4k | 389.7% | 343.7% | 50% | 60% | |
| 2 | 2 | $12.2k | 289.6% | 114.6% | 50% | 60% | |
| 3 | 2 | $4.5k | 165.9% |
Analyst tier
3 of 60 shown in full. 12 more are listed with the wallet withheld. The other 45 are not on this page at all. A plan opens every depositor, concentration, and the timing of each wallet’s entries and exits. The count is free because the count is the finding; the detail is what Analyst carries.