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Risk score
One number for how much can go wrong, built from risk alone and never from return. Higher is worse.Note 13
What this score is not
It is not a rating of how good a strategy is. Return is not an input — not as a component, not as a tie-break, not inverted. A number that mixed performance in would rank strategies by quality, and a quality ranking is the leaderboard this site exists to counterbalance. Sorting this page does not tell you what to buy; it tells you what could hurt.
It is not the provenance grade. How well evidenced a strategy is lives in evidence, deliberately apart: averaged together, a thoroughly documented risky vault would score like an undocumented safe one and you could not tell which you were holding.
The weights are a judgement, not a finding. No data set could give the right ones — that would need many observed failures with known causes, and the missing record of failures is this site’s whole premise. They are published below so you can disagree, and every component is shown separately so you can ignore the total and read the parts.
Already gone4 vaults sit more than 95% below their own peak
These are separated because the loss has happened rather than looming, and a reader scanning for danger needs the ones that can still cost them something. The scores are unchanged — the arithmetic does not care whether a fall is past or pending — and they are published rather than hidden, because a failure that disappears from a site is the survivorship bias this place exists to argue with.
Show rows measured at least4 of 4 rows
| What drives it | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyperland | $20.3k | 60 | High | — | 83% | 100.0% peak to trough, market share not measured · 83% of the book sits in a one-sided crowd holding 0.5% of venue open interest | |
| TAPTRADE | $22.1k | 53 | High | — | 83% | 99.5% peak to trough, market share not measured · 74% of the book sits in a one-sided crowd holding 4.2% of venue open interest | |
| Didibaba | $17.2k | 52 | High | — | 83% | 99.5% peak to trough, market share not measured · 91% of the book sits in a one-sided crowd holding 3.7% of venue open interest | |
| BTC Forever | $18.1k | 39 | Moderate | — | 83% | 99.8% peak to trough, market share not measured · 36% of the book sits in a one-sided crowd holding 1.1% of venue open interest |