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Quantum Pendulum Capital
evidence grade BAim: 25-30% annualized alpha vs. hold BTC/ETH, no shorts. Target: chain's Berkshire. Top 5 cryptos. Low-frequency, cycle-based adjustments. "Be fearful when greedy." Lasting > first.
Due-diligence report: complete, dated, with a digest anybody can check
Taking money
Open
TVL
$100.7k
Return
-69.7%
over its watched history, read on 63 of 418 days, thin enough that the figure is an estimate between readings
The venue advertises
-0.2%
a year, on their own figures
Performance
Recent
-0.4% · -0.4%
30d · 90d · -0.4% over a year
Return per book-turn
-0.006%
turns 47.8× a day
Max drawdown
69.7%
a floor, read on 63 of 418 days
Sortino
—
return per unit of downside risk
Volatility
The record behind these figures
History
1.1y
over 65 readings from one source. The record below is longer: 67 readings in total (67 readings, all taken at the time), and the metrics use one source family rather than mixing them.
Record begins
2026-11-02
began 2025-09-07, so 421 days of it are before anything here
Record rests on
Grade B
The whole record is grade B.
Confidence
33%
in these metrics
Six risks, read separately
The same six across every vault we scoreSix risks, read separately
Strategy risk band High; market risk is severe, liquidity severe, and control is assessed separately and was not read.
Severe market and liquidity risk on this vault, against an overall band of high.
Due-diligence report
- Complete: every section, nothing withheld
- Issued: a digest anybody can check with us
- Dated: every figure with when it was read
- Portable: one file for a committee or a file
How much could leave, by amount
Your position
Pick or type an amount to weigh it against both: what the venue says could leave now, and the largest single withdrawal anybody has made here.
Value and drawdown
This chart shows the last 30 days of a 418 day record; the whole-record figures on this page are measured over all of it, and the 30, 90 and 365-day figures over their own windows, dated below. The rest is the Analyst tierRange
Hover for values. Upper: vault value, with BTC indexed to the same starting capital. Lower: how far below its own peak it was.
The rate, and the seven things that qualify it
A quoted rate is one input, not a verdict.
- Current quoted rate
- -0.2%
- Rewards inside that rate
- No reward rate is published, so we cannot say whether the quote includes one.
- Realised return
- Too little share-price history to derive one. The quote stands alone until there is.
- Fee basis
- We do not read this vault’s share price, so we cannot say which fees the figure is net of.
- Withdrawable nowweakens it
- $486.320.5% of the vault
- History quality
- No value series, so there is nothing to state a realised return from.
- What it depends on
- 55risk score
How these are read
Profit, and what the value is made of
Value held less cumulative profit is the money people put in. The venue draws the two apart; the gap is the point.Range
Profit and loss since the vault opened, as the venue reports it.
How this is read
It ignores deposits and withdrawals: only trading moves this line.
Value heldNet money put in
Range
Solid: what the vault holds.
How this is read
Dashed: what depositors put in, net of withdrawals. Where the two rise together the growth was deposits, not performance.
No strategy has been declared for this vault
Everything above is reconstructed from public data. A declaration is free, signed from this vault’s own key, and cannot be edited afterwards.Note 28
Evidence
What a risk decision about this vault can rest on
Six questions, and what we hold for each. 1 of 6 is not measured for this vault.
| Source mark | Question | What we hold | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| What does it hold or lend into? | USDCThe venue names a deposit asset. What the vault actually holds behind it has not been read. | Declared | |
| How much could leave now? | $486.32What the contract will pay out now, read from it. Not the same as what is idle. | Measured | |
| Who runs it, and what else have they run? | Quantum Pendulum CapitalA named operator with a record across every vault they run, including the ones that closed. |
Passport
Identity
Where the return came from
Costs consumed 100% of gross profitGross realised$54.14
Trading fees−$54.14
Funding received$0.74
Net realised$0.74
Unrealised−$265.33
Total−$264.59
That is -0.26% on the capital the strategy currently runs.
- Slippage is not separated: without a book snapshot at fill time it cannot be measured, so it remains inside gross rather than being estimated.
- Funding is differenced across position snapshots, so it is a flow over the window rather than a level: it counts what changed hands while we were watching and nothing before that. Intervals where a position closed and reopened are refused rather than guessed, which makes the figure a floor.
Computed from 430 fills over the 0d in which funding could also be measured, so every part is taken from the same days. That window opens when we started watching, not when the vault started trading. Measured by differencing 76 snapshot intervals over 1 hours.
Analyst tier
Detail is hidden, not absentHow well it executes
Built from 739 individual fills. Two strategies with identical signals can differ by hundreds of basis points purely in how they get filled, taker share, fee rate, slippage. This is the part of a result that is operational competence rather than market view, and it is what tells you whether a good year was skill or a good venue.
See what unlocksAlready a customer? Sign inHow this vault behaves
from 739 fills over 0.02 daysTiming indicates model assisted management, confidence 60%.
- · Observed for under a day, so the overnight signal is not yet available.
- · 48715.8 fills per day, beyond sustained manual trading.
Overnight activity not yet measurable
Hour-of-day evenness 21%
Cadence regularity 0%
Clock alignment 37%
Fills per day 48715.8
Instruments 19
Timing only. This says nothing about whether the strategy is any good, a losing bot is still a bot.
Current exposure
19 positions · $200.1k gross · 2.0x the vault's capitalWho is in it, and what moved in and out
Last read: not recordedAnalyst tier
Who is in this vault, and what moved in and out
Locked here: every depositor we read with their share of the vault, the largest single wallet, and the ledger of each deposit and withdrawal. A vault that is eighty per cent one depositor is a vault whose price can be reset by a single withdrawal, and whose headline TVL says almost nothing about whether anyone else believes in it.
See what unlocksAlready a customer? Sign inWhat is still missing
What this page cannot show yet, and why.
What they are
- Operator cohort. We show what the venue still exposes; strategies deleted before we began observing are invisible, and only pre-registration can make a cohort provably complete.
- Gross-to-net waterfall. Returns are venue-reported and not yet decomposed into fees, funding and slippage.
- Off-chain exposure. Anything held on a centralised exchange is invisible to us, so the risk shown is a floor.