The vaults that died, counted, because a survival rate cannot be computed from the survivors.Note 19
One venue. Every count here is Hyperliquid’s, because it is the venue that publishes its dead: the vaults it has ever listed, whether they are open, closed or left holding dust. Other venues appear elsewhere on this site and not in this population, a survival rate computed across venues that do not publish their closures would be computed from the survivors, which is the error this page exists to name.
59 days of census, one reading a day, from 12 August 2026. That is short, and it is short because we started recording it then rather than because nothing happened before. This is a reading we took and stored rather than an event a chain kept, so the series itself begins when we began; the underlying activity may well be reconstructable from an archive node or the venue’s own history, and we have not done it.
Three outcomes, not two. A vault is either large enough for us to rate, alive but below that floor, or closed and abandoned, and the middle one matters, because a month of mostly-small-but-living vaults is not a month where most of them died.
Drawn from 39 cohorts at least six months old; 6 younger months are excluded. Those three add to 100%, which is why there is no separate success chart, the failure rate is not the complement of the survival rate, and the gap between them is the middle column.
| Month | Born | What became of them | Rated | Small | Gone | Rated % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05 | 202 | 5 | 51 | 146 | 2.5% | |
| 2025-06 | 251 | 11 | 51 | 189 | 4.4% | |
| 2025-07 | 224 |
A different population from the rest of this page. The census above is Hyperliquid’s alone; this line is every platform we read, and it is about our own coverage rather than about a market. It is here because the same argument applies to us: a series that begins when we began cannot describe what happened before, and it steps when our reach steps rather than when capital moves.
Method and limits in the methodology. This page is free and will stay free: it is what makes everything else here worth reading.
| 10 |
| 54 |
| 160 |
| 4.5% |
| 2025-08 | 199 | 13 | 46 | 140 | 6.5% |
| 2025-09 | 255 | 7 | 53 | 195 | 2.7% |
| 2025-10 | 217 | 7 | 58 | 152 | 3.2% |
| 2025-11 | 157 | 13 | 47 | 97 | 8.3% |
| 2025-12 | 117 | 14 | 32 | 71 | 12.0% |
| 2026-01 | 133 | 12 | 48 | 73 | 9.0% |
| 2026-02 | 159 | 16 | 56 | 87 | 10.1% |
| 2026-03 | 220 | 28 | 79 | 113 | 12.7% |
| 2026-04 | 83 | 8 | 36 | 39 | 9.6% |
| 2026-05 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 60.0%too young |
| 2026-06 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40.0%too young |
| 2026-07 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 33.3%too young |
| 2026-08 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50.0%too young |
| 2026-09 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 50.0%too young |
| 2026-10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0%too young |
Every bar is one month’s whole intake, so the segments are shares of that month and not of each other. Months faded out are younger than 6 months: nothing in them has had time to fail, and their high rated share describes the calendar rather than the strategies. Intake ranged from 1 to 255 vaults a month, which is why bar length is not used to encode it.